The Spiral Notebook

Many of you visited our United States Senate website and I am using this to stay connected. This conversation will focus on my currrent activities and will be regularly updated. I very much want this to be a two way conservation, and encourage your comments or suggestions. For those with whom I have visited in the past, welcome home. For the new acquaintances, I look forward to sharing the adventure of life with you.

Archive for the ‘Terrorism’ Category

My Word: Take charge before disaster strikes

Posted by cgrwb on October 3, 2011

OrlandoSentinel.com

By Bob Graham and Jim Talent

12:00 AM EDT, October 3, 2011When the tornado sirens sounded in Joplin, Mo., Ella Smith and her husband grabbed their two dogs and ran to their basement. There, sheltered from the shrieking wind by sturdy walls, they weathered the storm that flattened their house.

 

Many people think of big disasters as a government responsibility, but in reality, disasters are a shared responsibility between government and citizens. Government can set regulations, alert citizens to disaster and respond after disaster. But for Ella Smith, it was her own actions that saved her family. In this case, knowing about and being prepared to shelter-in-place turned tragedy into a story of survival and resilience.

 

Staying inside protective buildings, and going to bathrooms or basements, away from exterior walls, windows and roofs, is usually the best first response to any disaster, except when official warnings prompt you to evacuate, such as for a hurricane. You and your family should prepare before disaster threatens. Sheltering your family can be for a matter of minutes, hours or a few days.

 

Sheltering-in-place is surprisingly effective even for disasters in which survival seems impossible. In fact, in contrast to Cold War images of wholesale destruction, nuclear terrorism poses a limited range of damage and a high chance of survival, if people just do the right thing.

 

While serving on the Congressional Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism, we learned about recent work taking place at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the Center for Biosecurity of the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center. We were surprised to learn that hundreds of thousands of lives could be saved if people merely sheltered-in-place.

 

Americans need to prepare, not out of the grim fear of future disaster, but out of the belief that through their own actions, they can be authors of their own survival.

 

Simple steps will help prepare you and your family: Build and maintain an emergency kit to help you shelter-in-place for at least three days, make a plan with your family and inform yourself about disasters. Initiative and individual action through simple, inexpensive preparations can save you and your family.

 

Bob Graham was a two-term governor of Florida and three-term U.S. senator. Jim Talent served four terms in the House of Representatives and one term in the U.S. Senate representing Missouri. They are currently the chair and vice chair of the WMD Center.

Copyright © 2011, Orlando Sentinel

 

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Saudi Arabia: Friend or Foe?

Posted by cgrwb on July 13, 2011

thedailybeast.com

Jul 11, 2011
by Senator Bob Graham

Saudi men carry national flag during celebrations in support of Saudi King Abdullah in Riyadh in March, AP Photo

Senator Bob Graham asks why hard questions about Saudi Arabia have gone unanswered since 9/11. He explains why he’s finally taken to fiction to explore this controversial topic about what the U.S. is covering up.

On September 12, 2001, Americans learned that 15 of the 19 commercial-airplane hijackers of the previous day were Saudis. The thought that went through many minds was, What are the Saudis thinking? Were these 15 individual suicidal decisions, or does 9/11 represent a break in our mutually beneficial relationship stretching back to World War II?

From that date until today those questions have largely gone unanswered. Unanswered because the government of the United States has engaged in a sustained and effective campaign to keep the American public from knowing the truth. And we may ask: Why?

These are some of the questions that have preoccupied me since co-chairing the congressional inquiry into 9/11. They arose from the truth that surfaced, which included: The first two hijackers who entered the United States did so through Los Angeles International Airport in mid-January 2000. Within days they were urged by a shadowy man, already described in an FBI report as an “agent” of the Saudi government, to relocate to San Diego with promises of extensive support—promises on which he promptly delivered.

The agent’s cover was as a ghost employee of a contractor to an agency of the Saudi government—paid a salary and allowances but never expected to show up and work. His real job was to monitor Saudi youth in San Diego getting an education to ensure they were not also plotting the overthrow of the monarchy.

When the two future hijackers reached San Diego, the agent’s allowances were substantially increased. Upon their arrival the agent secured and paid for an apartment. He arranged flight lessons. He introduced them to a tight circle of Muslims, primarily Saudis, who offered additional support.

Yet the support being funneled to the two visitors proved insufficient for their decidedly non-Islamic tastes—alcohol, strip clubs, even a desired, though unfulfilled, marriage to a stripper. The agent then tapped another source of funds: a welfare account maintained for the benefit of Saudis in need by the wife of the kingdom’s ambassador to the United States.

That is some of what we do know, and we got a sufficient glimpse to know what we didn’t know. Still unanswered after nearly 10 years are the questions of the full extent of the Saudi pre-9/11 involvement:

  • Did any or all of the other 17 receive support from Saudi interests?
  • Why would Saudi Arabia do this?
  • Do the Saudis have the will and capability to aid future attacks against the United States?
  •  And most important: Why the cover-up by our government?

I have attempted to address these questions in the final report of the congressional commission and the nonfiction book Intelligence Matters, published in 2004. Each was censored by authorities in the intelligence community, particularly on the role of the Saudis in 9/11. I am now attempting to provide these answers in the form of fact wrapped in fiction in my novel Keys to the Kingdom.

Some have claimed my statements and anxieties are over the top, that there are less incendiary explanations for what the Saudi and U.S. governments have done. But a string of recent occurrences has brought to the surface the suspicion of direct, deep Saudi involvement in 9/11.

Why would the Saudis have given substantial assistance to at least two of the hijackers, and possibly all 19? The answer I have come to is survival—survival of the state and survival of the House of Saud. The Saudi regime in the late 1990s faced the prospect of a repeat of the 1979 Iranian revolution, when young revolutionaries toppled the shah. Osama bin Laden was ascending. He had achieved hero status—in his country of birth, Saudi Arabia, and across much of the Muslim world—for his work with the mujahedin in expelling the Soviets from Afghanistan. He had successfully bombed two U.S. embassies in Africa. He had trained thousands of potential terrorists in his Afghan camps. And he was planning even greater attacks—this time within the United States itself.

But bin Laden recognized a deficiency: Most of those who would be spirited into the United States had never been there before and did not speak English. How could they survive and maintain anonymity while they completed the final planning, practiced and executed an enormously sophisticated attack? The Saudis, who were known to have a global network of agents to monitor their youth against the prospects of another Iran, could provide the support infrastructure to make this possible. The threat of civil unrest against the monarchy, led by al Qaeda, could be the leverage for access to this network.

The Arab Spring has posed a similar threat to the survival of the state and the House of Saud.

There have been at least three responses from the palace.

  1. Beheadings, the traditional means of traumatizing the population into submission, have surged. According to Amnesty International, at least 27 such executions occurred during the first five months of 2011. This was the same number as the total for 2010. Another 100 or more wait on death row.
  2. Religious organizations, many aligned with the austere Wahhabi sect and the religious police, have been allocated an additional $200 million.
  3. The royal treasury, swollen by $214 billion in oil revenues last year, has been opened to essentially buy off the people. Public employees have received an additional two months’ salary; $70 billion has been lavished on 500,000 units of low-income housing.

One of the few reformists in the royal palace, Prince Talal bin Abdul Aziz, brother of King Abdullah, has said, “These people want to preserve their power, their money, and their prestige, so they want to keep the status quo. They are afraid of the word ‘change.’ This is a problem because they are shortsighted, but the difficulty is I don’t know how to change their way of thinking.”

An insight into how far the regime might go in defending and perpetuating the status quo occurred in May of this year at the Vienna meeting of the World Health Organization. Advancing its policy of avoiding the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, nuclear or biological, the United States offered a resolution that would have required all 193 members of the WHO to either declare they were smallpox-free or—as would be the case with the United States—to commit to the destruction of any smallpox pathogens held in laboratories or elsewhere within five years. Throughout history, smallpox has been a scourge of mankind, and the virus remains the only communicable human disease successfully erased from nature, a miracle of organization and determination. There is only one way it can reappear, and that is in a weaponized form from a nation or group bent on mass catastrophe and worldwide havoc. The results of any dissemination would automatically be classified as a crime against humanity. This resolution to destroy all samples was successfully filibustered by Iran. It is not surprising that a country which for more than a decade has sought to develop a nuclear capability would also be seeking a biological weapon. What was surprising was Saudi Arabia, one of Iran’s staunchest opponents, declaring that it “strongly disagreed” with the United States’ position.

Why would the kingdom abandon its most important ally to support a nation that for the past 30-plus years has been considered its archenemy? Could it be that Saudi Arabia is also developing biological weapons?

The most perplexing unanswered question remains: Why would the United States engage in a cover-up?
Many have pointed to the special personal friendship between the royal family and the highest levels of our national government. The fact that the Saudis were allowed to fly a planeload of their elite home from the United States in the days immediately after 9/11, when all other commercial aviation was grounded, is often cited as support for that position. In fact, all that actions such as this do is make America’s post-9/11 reaction to the Saudis even more mysterious.

Secrets deemed this critical by both governments are bound to be buried under many layers of official protection and unofficial obfuscation. The actions since 9/11 are a perverted application of Winston Churchill’s truism on the Allies’ plans to end World War II: “In wartime, truth is so precious that she should always be attended by a bodyguard of lies.”

If one method of disclosing precious truth doesn’t work, you try another. I’d always wanted to try my hand at a novel—to place characters of my own invention in challenging and intriguing situations that tested and defined their wits, strength, courage, and moral fiber. Now I had both motivation and material. Having been thwarted in my “real life” efforts to bring out the answers to these questions, which should be among the highest priorities to our citizens, I resorted to fiction, to the imaginative world of “What if?” With the publication of Keys to the Kingdom, I feel I have finally conveyed the reality I’ve pursued for so long.

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Osama bin Laden is dead. Now what?

Posted by cgrwb on May 16, 2011

Osama bin Laden is dead. Now what?
By Bob Graham, Published: May 12
Washington Post

After almost 10 years of the most intensive and expensive manhunt in the history of the world, Osama bin Laden is dead. The inevitable questions: What do we do now? What are al-Qaeda’s capabilities to do us harm?

For at least the past 15 years, bin Laden sought to acquire a nuclear or biological weapon of mass destruction. Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, a career intelligence officer and former head of the CIA’s department on weapons of mass destruction, has observed that “al Qaeda is the only group known to be pursuing a long-term, persistent and systematic approach to developing weapons to be used in mass casualty attacks.” Bin Laden’s quest for a weapon of mass destruction was driven by his dogma that each attack against the United States or its interests abroad should be greater than any previous assault. This became operational in late 2002 or early 2003, Mowatt-Larssen reported, when al-Qaeda’s central leadership canceled a planned attack using a crude cyanide device on New York subways because it was waiting for “something better.”

It is probable that the next leadership of central al-Qaeda will not cling to bin Laden’s tenet, so if and until the new supreme leader acquires a weapon of mass destruction, Americans are likely to be threatened by significant but smaller attacks.

Meanwhile, the fruits of bin Laden’s efforts to acquire non-conventional weapons will be available to the new leader. Advances in technology have reduced the necessity of a significant organizational capacity for such weapons to be secured and utilized. A small group whose organizing principle is hatred of Americans could concoct a lethal brew of pathogens in a basement laboratory and stealthily disperse it through a vaporization machine in the back of a pickup truck, killing tens of thousands in a major American city.

So we must not see this as a time to relax our domestic vigilance. Ironically, the day bin Laden was dispatched was the eighth anniversary of the “Mission Accomplished” ceremony on the USS Abraham Lincoln. After that premature declaration of victory, an attitude took hold that America could quickly close the page on Iraq. That attitude proved dramatically wrong and resulted in an extension of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. We must not succumb to the same error again.

We should also be wary of the nebulous slogan “war on terrorism” and should name and target our actual enemies: al-Qaeda, its affiliates and other groups such as Hezbollah. At an operational level this means less attention to geography but, rather, a strategy with a laser focus on the specific organizations wherever they are located. For al-Qaeda this means not Afghanistan, where fewer than 100 operatives remain, but in Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia, where many are known to operate. Executing this strategy will take the type of close-order combat required to kill bin Laden.

His death will not render al-Qaeda impotent. While the symbolic and intellectual force of bin Laden was formidable, al-Qaeda has a culture of leadership succession and a recent history of institutional transformation. The West and its Middle Eastern allies have been attacking al-Qaeda’s leadership structure since before Sept. 11, 2001, killing or capturing hundreds of its top and mid-management. In virtually all these instances, al-Qaeda has had a bench that allowed it to quickly and seamlessly replace each dispatched leader. Bin Laden’s successor will inherit a daunting challenge, but past experience suggests there is such a person prepared to assume leadership.

Since Sept. 11 al-Qaeda has undergone a fundamental transition. Before the attacks, it was a hierarchical structure with bin Laden the dominant figure at the top. Today, al-Qaeda is a franchise with 60 or more national or subnational units, with the stronger of these franchisees demonstrating a desire to be more independent of central al-Qaeda. Indeed, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has broken from bin Laden’s vision of increasingly larger attacks by launching a series of operations against the United States far smaller than that of Sept. 11, thankfully all unsuccessful. More fundamentally, this decentralization of al-Qaeda has provided the organization with enhanced local knowledge and nimbleness and a distributed leadership that reduces the significance of any single individual, even an Osama bin Laden.

What we need to do now is to sustain and intensify the post-bin Laden spirit that America can accomplish whatever it sets out to do. We must be vigilant and assured of full capability to deter, prevent and respond to al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations whenever we discover them and wherever they are.

Bob Graham, a Democrat and former governor of Florida, chaired the Senate intelligence committee from 2001 to 2003. His novel “Keys to the Kingdom” is to be released next month.

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Washington Post Op Ed, August 3rd, 2010

Posted by cgrwb on August 19, 2010

Funding Cuts threaten vital defense against bioterrorism:

By Bob Graham and Jim Talent

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

The two of us — at the request of Congress and in the service of two presidents — have for the past 30 months led a bipartisan effort to assess the danger of a WMD attack and recommend steps to reduce it.

In December 2008 the commission we led on the prevention of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and terrorism unanimously concluded that unless the world community acts decisively and with great urgency, it is more likely than not that a weapon of mass destruction will be used in a terrorist attack by the end of 2013 — and that a biological attack is more likely than nuclear. This conclusion was publicly affirmed by then-Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell.

Information has since come to light about the possibility that one or more nation-states may choose to provide sophisticated biological weapons to terrorist groups. The scenario that would result is not that of more than two dozen people becoming ill and five dying, as happened after the anthrax mailings in October 2001, but a much darker picture, as described in a November 2009 National Security Council document.

read more at The Washington Post

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A new kind of deterrence Security * The $55 billion we spend annually on our nuclear deterrence force is useless confronting terrorists. OTHER VIEWS.

Posted by cgrwb on April 14, 2010

Publication: St Louis Post-Dispatch (MO)
Publication Date: 14-APR-10
Format: Online
Delivery: Immediate Online Access

Article Excerpt
Byline: Bob Graham and Jim Talent
As part of the Nuclear Posture Review, national security, intelligence and defense officials are in a heated debate within the Obama administration regarding the purpose of America’s nuclear arsenal: whether the sole purpose of our nuclear force is to deter nuclear attack or whether it is the primary purpose.  If it is the primary purpose, then the nuclear force would also be a deterrent against a biological attack by a nation-state.

This deterrent is an extension of the Cold War policy of calculated ambiguity.  In the early stages of the Cold War, when both the U.S. and Soviet Union arsenals included nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons, deterrence was based on response with like weapons – a chemical response to a chemical attack, a biological response to biological, and nuclear to nuclear.

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